Mini Episode 17 - Why do smart people believe in dumb horoscopes?

Millie from Coogee wants to know why we can't help but look into the crystal ball.

Dan: (00:17)
Welcome to another episode of bad decisions. I'm your host, Dan Monheit co-founder of creative agency hardhat. And today we have a ripping question from Millie in Coogee.

Millie: (00:27)
One of my friends checks her daily horoscope every morning, letting it guide her every decision for the day. I think she'd rather take advice from her horoscope than any of her friends. Why does smart people believe in dumb horoscopes?

Dan: (00:39)
That is a wonderful, thoughtful, insightful question, milli and the rise of Pluto suggested the answer is just around the corner. Along with an event that will prompt you to reassess a close relationship and a major life decision that will require you to trust your gut. But in all seriousness, who doesn't love a horoscope, a poem reading, maybe even an aura audit. If you are happy to find yourself in Byron bay, especially when they all tell us how close we are to financial freedom, everlasting love and discovering our true purpose in this large lonely world. The funny thing is the same science that proves horoscopes are bullshit. Also explains why so many people even really, really, really smart ones still believe in them. So join me, my Taurian adventurer, as we embark on a great journey upon which enlightenment and a true spiritual awakening are all but guaranteed first stop.

Dan: (01:29)
And if I'm honest, the only stop on our journey is at the bottom effect. The bottom effect describes our tendency to believe that personality descriptions are tailored specifically to us, even though they are in fact vague. And in reality could apply to virtually anybody in 1948, psychologists Bertram four handed out, especially devised questionnaire to his students. This is amazing. Wait, wait for this. Right. The students were told to complete the questionnaire honestly, and were promised a personalized sketch or description of their personality type in return for a collected, the completed questionnaires and returned the following week with personalized sketches for each and every one of his students upon receiving their sketches or descriptions. Each student was asked to provide a rating from zero, which was poor all the way up to five, which was spot on in regard to how accurately the sketch described them. The average accuracy rating was 4.3, which is rather incredible when you consider that each student received the exact same sketch, which as you might imagine for had assembled from a new stand astrology book the night before, as it turns out, almost anything can apply to almost anyone horoscopes Claire Voyance and which Harry Potter character are. You tests all play into our curiosity and our vanity. Holy

Speaker 3: (02:45)
Cricket, your Harry Potter, you're Harry Potter,

Dan: (02:48)
The deliberate vagueness leaves room for us to insert our own meaning and relevance, helping universal statements about being self critical falling short of our potential or seeking securities seem truly personal. These descriptions tend to be considered even more believable when they're you never believe it positive and come from a perceived authority, such as a widely circulated newspaper or a mystical woman, surrounded by crystals and candles in a velvet carnival tent. The Barnum effect is a powerful tool for getting people to self-identify. As prospective customers, brands can use this by highlighting product truths that actually flatter the audience. So if you make running apparel, you might run a line that says running gear for people who know that bad conditions are only ever a state of mind, right? You see how people would be like, oh, that's totally me, right? Or another thing they can do is hero particular audience segment.

Dan: (03:34)
So this isn't just any peanut butter. This is peanut butter for dads who want the best for their kids. It's like, Hey, I'm a dad like that. Anyway, if you like the sound of this, and you're a smart marketer, like all smart marketers you'll know what to do from here. Just trust your gut. So there we have it Millie, I hope that answers your question of why smart people believe dumb horoscopes. And if you've got any further questions or queries about weird and wonderful human behaviours that you've seen in the world, shoot 'em through to me. You can get me at Dan Monheit all over the internet, or if you wanna use your old email, you can get me at askdan@hardhat.com AU. And now as I look deep into my crystal ball, I see you downloading a future podcast episode with a yellow logo letters, B and D in the icon until then take care and trust your instincts.