Mini Episode 19 - Why is it 11:11 every time I look at my watch?

Ross from Holland Park wants to know if his watch is broken or if it's a sign from above.

Dan: (00:16)
What's up everybody. It's Dan Monheit here with a fresh episode of the bad decisions podcast. You know, uh, we're still doing the mini formats here, where we are tackling weird and wonderful questions. Today. We have an absolute belter. This is coming to us from Ross in Holland park, but I'm not gonna lie. This could just as easily have come to us from my wife in Melbourne, Ross, what you got

Ross: (00:36)
My girlfriend was telling me that how seeing certain numbers can mean there's new opportunities on the horizon. At first. I thought it was ridiculous, but then I started wondering if it's a sign. Why every time I look at my watch, it's 1111.

Dan: (00:49)
Why, why, why? Uh, you know, we like tackling the big questions here and there is none bigger than why it is 11, 11. Every time you look at your watch right now, there is a wonderful saying that even a broken clock is right twice a day, but I'm assuming that you, my dear friend, Ross are more of a digital watch and maybe even a Velcro wallet kind of guy, no disrespect. Now it is very tough to go past this 11, 11 phenomena. And before getting your question, I didn't even realize this was such a big thing. And then I saw the question I jumped on the internet and oh my goodness, I was not ready for this. The web is filled with a multitude of perfectly reasonable explanations, including the, and I quote synchronicity of the universe or suspicious signs, the opening of opportunity portals and the presence of spirits.

Dan: (01:34)
Ah, thank you, internet, to be fair. This 11, 11 phenomena may not be for everyone, but every one of us is subject to our own little belief about things happening far more often than they actually should. So for some of us, it is a perfectly timed 40 weeks, 40 hour sale. A just when we were planning to go out and buy a new bed for others, it is everyone on Instagram being pregnant or in Europe or being pregnant in Europe or the timely arrival of this podcast. Whenever you are contemplating life's biggest questions. So what is going on here or watch is going on here, if you will. Let's let's take a look. So what does at play here today? Ross is something called the confirmation bias. Now confirmation bias describes our tendency to seek out and upright information that supports any of our existing beliefs while undervaluing, discrediting, ignoring, not even rating avoiding anything that runs counter the more emotional or deeply held the belief.

Dan: (02:28)
The more susceptible we seem to be to the confirmation bias. So one of the most famous studies about confirmation bias was carried out by Lord Ross and LEPA in 1979. And this provided us with a very, very clear striking demonstration of confirmation bias in action. The researchers gathered two opposing groups of students, one who were pro capital punishment, believing it to be an effective deterrent of crime and the other against believing. It had no effect at all. Each of the highly opinionated groups were asked to review two studies. One of these studies contained strong irrefutable evidence in support of capital punishment's impact on crime reduction while the other contained equally strong evidence against it, low and behold, the students in favor of capital punishment found the material that supported their stance to be highly credible. While regarding the other study, as entirely unconvincing, the students who held the opposite views found the same, but in reverse, when the students were finally asked to restate their views in light of the new evidence that they just reviewed, both groups doubled down on their initial beliefs, pro punishment.

Dan: (03:29)
If that's what you would call them were adamant about its ability to reduce crime. While the anti punishment is remains staunchly unconvinced. Now it's worth remembering the two groups reviewed identical studies. The thing is as humans, we love being right, and you know what two other things we really love are conserving mental energy and appearing consistent to others. Both of which are compromised when we change our worldview, confirmation bias explains how we enthusiastically click the first Google result that backs our argument and why it feels like Facebook is listening to us. But come on how many ads for products you weren't just talking about? Did you mindlessly scroll pass without noticing? There is no doubt that we check our clocks watches and phones dozens, if not hundreds of times a day. And with every peak, I'm sorry to say the odds of it being 11, 11 remain up poultry one in 722 or one in 1,440.

Dan: (04:19)
If you run military time, like I do where confirmation bias kicks in is in us, not noticing any other time, quite so much. And how could we with all of that gorgeous symmetry and wish granting magic wrapped up in the wondrous 11, 11, unless you're a brand that's fresh to market is, but guaranteed that buyers will already have some preconceived perceptions about who you are and what you stand for. So instead of battling up hill, trying to change people's minds, you should look for ways to lean into it and dial up what they already believe to be true. Yes, this might take some reinterpreting or a little creative license, but the truth is almost always the best place to start. And if you need some creative inspiration, Volkswagens think small and Avis is wear. Number two are classic examples. On the other hand, if the aspirations for the brand are completely at odds with what the masses already believe, then either strap yourself in for a long, expensive transformational journey ahead or consider acquiring partnering, or spitting up a new brand for a fresh start. Instead. Exactly like Toyota did with Lexus back in 1989. So that is it for today. Ross, I hope that answers your question of why it is 11, 11, or at least why it feels like 11, 11. Every time you look at your watch, if you like Ross have been wondering about weird and wonderful observations of human behavior in life, please shoot 'em through and I will do my best to answer them. You can get me at Dan Monheit all over the internet, or shoot me through a old school askdan@hardhat.com.au. Catch you next time.

Dan: (06:04)
So watch up with that. it's so good.