Mini Episode 13 - Why did I buy so many pairs of sweatpants?

Holly from Brighton wants to know why counting her sweats has got her sweating.

Dan: (00:18)
Welcome to bad decisions. I know you guys are waiting to hear the dulcet tones of Dr. Mel, and I can assure you, she is just around the corner, but for now you're still just me answering your weird and wonderful questions about human behavior. And today we have an absolute classic. This comes to us from Holly in Brighton. Holly, what you got for us?

Holly: (00:38)
Hi, Dan. I was just in the middle of moving and I'm going through my closet and I've just realized that I have way too many pairs of sweatpants. I don't know where they've come from. I swear I only had a few and really only use a couple now, but now I'm thinking about all the shopping sprees that I've had in the last year, and I've just got too many, and now I have to dump them all. Why did I buy so many pair of sweatpants?

Dan: (01:03)
Oh, Holly, look let me just start by going on the record here and saying, I don't really see the problem. I mean, I'm looking at my own wardrobe. I see 11 pairs of almost identical sweatpants that I bought over the course of 2020. And I take joy knowing that these are now a key part of the estate that my lucky kids will one day inherit. So I don't know what the problem is. However, let's see if we can get to the bottom of it anyway. Right? There is no question that each purchase seemed like a good idea at the time, right? Same goes for my wine subscription, my razor subscription, my stock subscription, my bacon subscription, my underwear subscription and my online yoga Pilates meditation subscription. Also, my eyebrow ring from 1998 and also the Green Day tattoo on the small of my back.

Dan: (1:45)
Not really, but you kind of get it. But that's enough about me, Holly, let's talk about you. Why did you buy all of those sweatpants and why does today Holly, seem somewhat less thrilled about it than lockdown Holly who bought them all in the first place? Well, the answer is because lockdown Holly was suffering from projection bias, like we all do all the time. Projection bias is our tendency to assume that our future selves will have the exact same set of tastes, preferences and priorities that our current selves do. See, it turns out that the difficulty we have feeling empathy towards others, also annoyingly extends to our future selves. A shortcoming that Carnegie Mellon University psychologist, George Loewenstein labeled the intra personal empathy gap. In a series of like pretty interesting experiments, Loewenstein, contrasted people's predictions about how much they would be affected by a major life change.

Dan: (02:32)
So something like moving to a different climate, winning the lottery, becoming a paraplegic. So he contrasted that with data from people who had actually experienced those life changes. What Loewenstein found was that people consistently and significantly overestimated the impact that these changes would have on their happiness. And a really big part of that is because they couldn't imagine experiencing these changes in any context, other than the one they were already in. If it's warm outside, we can't imagine ever not wanting a pool or a convertible. If we are starving while we shop, we know what happens, right? We end up loading up our supermarket trollies, like we will be eating for Australia for the next week straight. If we've been working from home in sweats for months on end, it also seems unfathomable that we will ever slip back into a suit or heels, or a suit and heels, or whatever takes your fancy, right?

Dan: (03:19)
So we better buy some more trackie dacks. This lack of foresight can have major consequences, as we fail to appreciate that today's enthusiasm towards a monthly wine subscription, an overpriced handbag, or even an edgy neck tattoo, may not be matched by our future selves, who ultimately inherit the results of all of these decisions.

Dan: (03:37)
For brands, the projection bias provides a golden opportunity to capitalize on motivation in the moment. So this could be as simple as offering to book a follow up visit or service immediately after the first one, adding recurring payments or bulk buy options or going pedal to the metal on media when conditions are absolutely perfect. People will make all sorts of decisions. Many of them long term, and many of them bad, based on the assumption that they will always feel exactly as they do, right here, right now. So, Holly, I know that doesn't really help your track pants situation, but at least, hopefully you have now some understanding of why you did it and maybe it will stop you burdening, future Holly, with more terrible purchases that today Holly wants. To everybody else out there who a question about a weird or wonderful human behavior that they've witnessed maybe in others, maybe in themselves, please send it through to me.

Dan: (04:27)
You can get me at Dan Monheit around most of the internet or on the old fashioned email at askdan@hardhat.com.au. It's been a lot of fun. Hope you guys enjoyed and looking forward to tackling the next one of these with you in a couple of weeks from now. Take care.